Abstraction

I’ve read a number of reports speculating about mobile data growth lately and it strikes me that they typically omit what I believe is the most significant evolution affecting mobile data. iPhones and similar are great and have certainly accelerated the market, but they are nothing compared to the impact (and opportunity for network policy vendors) represented by netbooks with embedded cellular access.

Consider: Right now, AT&T is selling a range of laptops in Northern California at Radio Shack for $49.95 (that’s not a typo — 50 bucks; see http://tinyurl.com/oagx33) with a 2 year contract for flat rate data with a monthly cap. Netbooks are now the most popular computer type on the market (Intel expects sales to double in 2009 http://tinyurl.com/djxdrd).

Too, there’s the recent announcements of businesses standardizing on cloud office applications like Google Apps. Imagine the savings a large enterprise can enjoy by standardizing on netbooks. Laptops so cheap they are almost disposable. All data saved safely in the cloud.

Suddenly you have lots of torrent sessions and Skype calls routinely supported through the mobile network. Huge increases in youtube traffic. Hulu. Even parental control becomes much more meaningful as parents worry about inappropriate content accessed via the laptop much more than a phone.

Suddenly, despite usage caps, the GGSN is supporting data volume like no one could ever dream, with smartphone traffic a minority. Some reports say this is a long range play. We’ll see. I think it’s going to explode as we watch. And vendors that tie licensing terms to usage/seats/transactions or similar, will watch revenue explode with it…